Geopolitical Horizons Institute
Strategic Analysis Note
Abdelhakim Yamani
May 24, 2025🔥 EXCLUSIVE REVELATION FROM THE GEOPOLITICAL HORIZONS INSTITUTE
Our diplomatic sources confirm the ongoing preparation of a high-level international conference on Western Sahara, scheduled for summer 2025. This initiative brings together exclusively major powers with a view to a definitive resolution of the conflict. Recent statements from the C24 in Dili validate our exclusive information and confirm the acceleration of the diplomatic process.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Geopolitical Horizons Institute exclusively reveals the preparation of a high-level international conference on Western Sahara, scheduled for summer 2025. This major diplomatic initiative, which brings together exclusively major powers, aims to formulate a formal recommendation to the UN Security Council for a definitive resolution of the conflict by October 2025. Recent statements by Moroccan Ambassador Omar Hilale during the C24 regional seminar in Dili (May 21-23, 2025) confirm this revelation and demonstrate a strategic hardening of the Moroccan position. Hilale explicitly designated the Autonomy Initiative as « the sole foundation for a lasting settlement, » marking a decisive turning point in Sahrawi diplomacy. This conference is part of an unprecedented international strategic convergence around the autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty, driven by successive recognitions from France and the United States and growing recognition from more than 116 UN member states.
1. REVELATION: AN UNPRECEDENTED INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE IN PREPARATION
1.1 Exclusive Information: The Secret Genesis
The Geopolitical Horizons Institute reveals in world exclusivity the ongoing preparation of a restricted international conference dedicated to the definitive settlement of the Western Sahara conflict. This high-intensity diplomatic initiative, whose existence had never been publicly confirmed, originates from strategic convergence between several major powers, notably the United States and France.
UNPRECEDENTED CHARACTER: Unlike the usual formats of international conferences on regional conflicts, this initiative adopts a highly selective approach, limited exclusively to powers having a determining influence on conflict resolution. This restricted configuration demonstrates the will to achieve a definitive and enforceable decision.
1.2 Exclusive Composition Revealed
According to our leading diplomatic sources, this international conference brings together:
Confirmed participants:
- The Group of Friends of Western Sahara: France, Russia, Spain, United Kingdom and United States (including four of the five permanent members of the Security Council)
- United Arab Emirates: Strategic regional power with growing diplomatic role
- China (participation being confirmed): Beijing’s potential involvement would considerably strengthen the weight of recommendations
1.3 Validation by C24 Statements in Dili
Recent statements by Ambassador Omar Hilale during the C24 regional seminar in Dili (May 21-23, 2025) confirm our exclusive revelation. The categorical tone and unprecedented firmness of his remarks demonstrate Moroccan confidence in the imminence of a definitive solution, thus validating our information on the preparation of this international conference.
Hilale notably affirmed that « the Sahara is Moroccan by history, law and the free expression of its populations » and that « it is now time for other parties to recognize this », a formulation that clearly announces the imminence of a major diplomatic outcome.
2. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE: A DEFINITIVE RESOLUTION IN OCTOBER 2025
2.1 Calendar and Ambitions
The international conference pursues an explicit formal objective: to formulate a common recommendation to the UN Security Council for the adoption in October 2025 of a definitive resolution ending the regional dispute over the Sahara.
This recommendation should establish:
- The autonomy plan proposed by Morocco as the sole basis for settlement
- Recognition of the Kingdom’s full and complete sovereignty over the Sahara
- Definitive abandonment of any other settlement option, particularly referendum
2.2 Operational Objectives Revealed
Beyond the formal resolution of the conflict, our sources reveal that the conference also aims at:
- Elaboration of an operational roadmap for implementing the autonomy plan, including a precise timeline and monitoring mechanisms
- Normalization of regional relations between main actors, notably Morocco and Algeria
- Institutional transformation of MINURSO into an autonomy support mission
3. DIPLOMATIC CONFIRMATION: THE DILI TURNING POINT
3.1 Moroccan Strategic Hardening
Ambassador Omar Hilale’s statements during the C24 regional seminar in Dili mark a historic turning point in Moroccan diplomatic strategy and confirm our exclusive revelations.
MAJOR CONFIRMED EVOLUTION: For the first time in a UN forum, Hilale explicitly designated the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative as « the sole foundation for a lasting settlement, » abandoning any reference to other settlement options. This categorical position validates our information that Morocco approaches the international conference from a position of strength.
3.2 Direct Challenge to Algeria
In an unprecedented rhetorical escalation, the Moroccan ambassador directly denounced « Algeria’s dilatory maneuvers » and its « destabilization strategy in the Maghreb region and beyond. »
This public denunciation, unusual in traditional Moroccan diplomacy, confirms that Rabat is preparing for a decisive diplomatic confrontation during the international conference. Hilale notably emphasized that Moroccan engagement « cannot be one-way or eternal, » implicitly announcing the imminence of a diplomatic ultimatum.
3.3 Updated Data on International Recognition
Hilale provided updated figures that strengthen Morocco’s position ahead of the conference:
- More than 116 states worldwide have expressed explicit support for the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative
- About thirty countries have opened consulates general in Laayoune and Dakhla
- Continuation of « withdrawals of recognition of the phantom entity » (terminology used by Hilale to designate SADR)
4. GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT: THE CATALYSTS OF THE INITIATIVE
4.1 Historic French Recognition
The international conference initiative finds its main catalyst in France’s explicit recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in July 2024. President Emmanuel Macron officially qualified Morocco’s proposed autonomy plan as « the sole basis » for a political solution.
This position, described as « immutable » by the Élysée, created an irreversible diplomatic dynamic that led to the secret elaboration of this restricted international conference.
4.2 American Acceleration under Trump
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in January 2025 considerably accelerated the process. The Republican administration, eager to capitalize on its Congressional majorities before the 2026 midterm elections, made Sahara resolution a strategic priority.
American motivations converge around three axes:
- Competition with China in Africa: Counter Beijing’s growing influence on the continent
- Sahel Security: Stabilize a region confronted with violent extremism and Russian penetration
- Alliance Consolidation: Strengthen strategic partnership with Morocco
4.3 Evolution of International Positions
Our sources confirm significant evolution in positions of several key actors:
United Kingdom: London has progressively strengthened its support for the Moroccan position and could announce formal recognition before the conference.
Spain: Madrid maintains its March 2022 position qualifying the autonomy plan as « the most serious, realistic and credible basis. »
Russia: Moscow adopts a more nuanced posture and might not oppose a solution based on autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.
5. TRANSFORMATION OF THE UN PROCESS
5.1 Definitive Abandonment of the Referendum Option
As Ambassador Hilale confirmed in Dili, the Security Council has definitively ruled out the « self-determination referendum » option. This paradigmatic evolution opens the way for the international conference.
FUNDAMENTAL MUTATION: The UN Secretary-General had concluded in his February 17, 2000 report on the impossibility of « orderly and consensual implementation of the Settlement Plan. » Since then, the Security Council has resolutely turned toward a mutually acceptable political solution, creating the conditions for this international conference.
5.2 MINURSO Reconfiguration
The 10% budget extension approved on April 14, 2025 marks the beginning of MINURSO’s transformation from an observation mission to an autonomy support mission.
6. REGIONAL STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS
6.1 Algeria Facing Isolation
Holding this international conference places Algeria in a critical diplomatic position. Algerian support for the Polisario Front, a pillar of its foreign policy for 50 years, now appears anachronistic facing the emerging international consensus.
ALGERIAN STRATEGIC DILEMMA: Algiers faces growing isolation, aggravated by its simultaneous crises with Morocco (relations broken since August 2021), Mauritania, and the Alliance of Sahel States. The April 1, 2025 incident, where the Algerian army shot down a Malian drone, illustrates this isolation dynamic.
6.2 Impact on Sahelian Stability
Definitive resolution of the Sahrawi conflict would have major implications for Sahel stability, enabling reinforced security coordination and a coherent approach to migratory and terrorist challenges.
7. PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS
7.1 Main Scenario: Consensual Resolution (Probability: 75%)
This scenario, reinforced by our Institute’s revelations and confirmed by Dili statements, foresees:
- Unanimous adoption of a recommendation in favor of the autonomy plan
- Endorsement by the Security Council in October 2025
- Progressive acceptance by Algeria facing its isolation
- Complete transformation of MINURSO
7.2 Partial Resistance Scenario (Probability: 20%)
Maintained but weakened Algerian opposition, leading to partial resolution with abstentions in the Security Council.
7.3 Crisis Scenario (Probability: 5%)
Escalation and destabilization, very improbable scenario given Algerian isolation.
8. CONCLUSION: A HISTORIC PIVOTAL MOMENT
The Geopolitical Horizons Institute’s exclusive revelation concerning this international conference marks a historic turning point in resolving the Western Sahara conflict. The year 2025, coinciding with the fiftieth anniversary of the Green March, confirms itself as the moment of truth for this five-decade-old dossier.
Ambassador Hilale’s recent statements in Dili, marked by unprecedented strategic hardening, confirm our revelations and demonstrate Moroccan confidence in the imminence of a definitive solution. The categorical formulation that the Autonomy Initiative now constitutes « the sole foundation for a lasting settlement » clearly announces Morocco’s strategy for this international conference.
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS:
- Monitor diplomatic preparations for this conference and preliminary consultations between participating powers
- Analyze Algerian reactions to signals sent from Dili and their impact on Algiers’ regional strategy
- Anticipate transformation modalities of MINURSO and autonomy implementation mechanisms
- Prepare post-settlement analysis and its implications for Maghreb regional integration
- Develop cooperation frameworks to capitalize on restored peace in the Sahara
STRATEGIC VIGILANCE
Although momentum favors Morocco, the critical period opens until October 2025. It will be necessary to carefully monitor reactions of regional actors and potential attempts to sabotage the ongoing diplomatic process.
